Isolated severe weather possible in the Brazos Valley

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – A wild swing in temperatures is in store for the Brazos Valley as we end the work week and head into the weekend. Overcast skies blanket the area Friday, holding afternoon thermometers to the 40s and low 50s. The quick return of Gulf humidity will nudge temperatures north overnight leading to a spring-ish feel Saturday to go along with the potential for spring-like thunderstorms.

STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, A FEW COULD BE SEVERE

The Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the Brazos Valley under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather Saturday. This “marginal” risk is defined as the potential for “isolated storms that are limited in duration. One or two severe storms are possible.”

As an area of low pressure nears the Texas Coast from the southwest, it will push a warm front through the Brazos Valley overnight and early Saturday morning. Humid, warmer air is expected to rush into the area at that time. A disturbance will utilize that low-level moisture and unlock an expected cluster of thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon.

While stormy weather is anticipated, this is not a threat for every thunderstorm that forms to become severe. Any slow-moving storm that can get out away from storm clusters and become isolated will need to be monitored for impactful weather.

HAZARDS / CONCERNS

Should a thunderstorm manage to grab an open spot in the atmosphere and become severe, it could bring the following concerns with it:

Damaging wind and a weak tornado concern will be possible with any severe thunderstorm Saturday
Damaging wind and a weak tornado concern will be possible with any severe thunderstorm Saturday(KBTX)
  • Damaging Wind Gusts in excess of 40 to 60mph
  • Weak Tornado concerns may occur at times
  • Localized Heavy Rain to the tune of a quick 1″ to 2″

TIMING

Scattered showers will be possible at anytime Saturday through Sunday morning. Thunderstorms development could begin as early as 2 pm across the Highway 6 corridor and through the Central Brazos Valley. The more likely opportunity for thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon to early evening east of the Navasota River. Strong and severe storms will be possible through 7 to 10 pm for those along and east of I-45.

Highest, most likely chance for thunderstorms Saturday falls along and east of the Navasota River
Highest, most likely chance for thunderstorms Saturday falls along and east of the Navasota River(KBTX)

For most of the Brazos Valley, a few tenths of an inch will be the best that many grab in the rain gauge from this weather event. Thunderstorms are not expected for the entire area. A cold front arrives Sunday midday to early afternoon, sweeping the rain potential and humidity south, allowing the next cooler round of air to seep into the Brazos Valley.

Weekend forecast for the Brazos Valley: January 7th - January 9th
Weekend forecast for the Brazos Valley: January 7th – January 9th(KBTX)

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